Clinical Study
LI Qian, LI Chenxi, FANG Chang, LIU Hui, GONG Zhongcheng
Objective: To construct a prognostic nomogram model combined with the clinical features of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and to predict the disease-specific analysis, based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)—an authoritative cancer statistical database.Methods: All patients diagnosed with HNSCC from 2004 to 2016 were selected from SEER registry database, including age, gender, race, marital status, primary tumor site, tumor stage (TNM), surgical situation, etc. The population epidemiological characteristics, prognostic factors, and treatment-related outcomes were calculated after adjustment for different variables. Cox proportional-hazards model was applied to achieve univariate and multivariate analysis. Finally, the performance evaluation model was used to determine the prediction model.Results: A total of 1 026 cases' available information was found in SEER database. Multivariate survival analysis of Cox proportional-hazards model showed that the risk of death in female patients was higher than that in male patients (P<0.001); patients aged over 60 years had higher risk of death than that in patients aged younger than 60 years (P<0.001); for the primary tumor site, taking tongue as a reference, the death risk of buccal mucosa, maxillary sinus, the floor of mouth was lower (P<0.05) and that in other locations (gingiva, palate, oropharynx, nasopharynx, larynx) was higher (P<0.05); in TNM stage, the risks of stageⅡ (P<0.001), stageⅢ (P<0.001) and stageⅣ (P<0.001) were relatively higher compared with stageⅠ patients; similarly, in terms of radiochemotherapy and immunotherapy, patients who did not receive radiochemotherapy or immunotherapy had an increased risk of death compared with patients who received radiochemotherapy or immunotherapy (P<0.001).Conclusion: Gender, HPV infection, TNM stage, radiotherapy and chemotherapy are the important factors for the survival of patients suffered from HNSCC. Patients with high risk factors should be paid more attention to after diagnosis, which is helpful for doctors to make clinical decisions in actual therapies.